There is a nation-wide debate about the invitation to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to visit Ukraine from President Volodymyr Zelensky, meanwhile, it is unlikely that Kishida replacement will happen so soon, though the media reported about possible case of it some while ago, due to low approval rate of his cabinet. Then, how should Kishida manage the situation when he visits there?
Japanese opinion leaders are somewhat skeptic of prime minister’s visit to Ukraine. That is from the following reasons. First, some worry that Japan itself would be imposed considerable burden by making a promise to the global community. Also, some points out that the current administration is preoccupied with domestic political schedule including the diet session, and even US President Joseph Biden has not visited Ukraine. Furthermore, Japanese-Ukrainian working-level talks can make progress without face to face meeting of leaders, and if Japanese prime minister were to have a bilateral summit in Ukraine at war, the media could leak sensitive information, because there is no legal framework regarding confidentiality. In such case, it would be difficult to ensure safety of both leaders ("A country without the duty of confidentiality: How can Japanese prime minister visit Ukraine?"; Nippon Broadcasting System; January 28, 2023).
Despite those concerns, symbolic value of face-to-face meeting cannot be dismissed. At present, only Japanese prime minister has not met President Zelensky one on one among G7 leaders. The United States has already sent Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to Ukraine, although President Biden has not visited there yet. In addition, Biden himself met Zelensky in Washington (NB). On the other hand, Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi is the only Japanese cabinet member who met the Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba in Poland ("Japan-Ukraine Foreign Ministers' Meeting"; Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japan; April 2, 2022). In view of this, would the global community regard the current administration as passive pacifist like the Kaifu administration during the Gulf War, if Japan did not respond to the request for a bilateral meeting continually? At that time, even though Japan reluctantly paid a huge amount of money for the reconstruction of Kuwait, that gave uncooperative impression to the coalition force.
Then, what should Japan do at a bilateral summit with Ukraine? In policy aspects, it is unlikely that Ukraine expects Japan to fulfill military roles. Actually, when Zelensky delivered a remote speech at Japanese national diet last March, he expressed high expectation to steady engagement with postwar reconstruction, but not military support ("Read The Full Speech by President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Japan’s National Diet"; Japan Forward; March 24, 2022). While exploring reconstruction assistance after the war, Japan needs to provide some help for living and safety of Ukrainian people at ongoing war. Among those issues, repairment of infrastructures is urgent as Russia is committing any crime to destroy them without giving any consideration to international humanitarian laws of war, which is indispensable to provide logistics for Ukrainian forces, conserve the route of food export, and maintain living of the people such as utility. Also, Japan has long experience to engage with demining operation in Cambodia, and train Ukrainian staff there under auspices of the JICA ("Strengthening Ukraine's capacity in Humanitarian Demining"; JICA; January 24, 2023). Both countries are expected to cooperate in medical and mental care of war victims, and investigation of Russian war crime. However, it is unlikely that Japan will provide direct military support for Ukraine, and the detail of Japanese aid plan will be discussed after the war.
Besides the above-mentioned policy aspects, we cannot dismiss public diplomacy aspects of a Japanese-Ukrainian direct bilateral meeting. The most critical thing for the Zelensky administration is global public attention to the invasion of Ukraine. If Japan were to have a bilateral summit, it would impress the global community that the Ukrainian crisis beyond geopolitical conflict within the Euro-Atlantic sphere. That is to say, Japan should rather behave as a “good man from somewhere far away”. As with the case of a summit, a joint press conference or a speech would be held on that occasion, and since Japan is a late comer but needs to impress its political presence to the global community, and therefore, it would be a good idea for this country to boost “sympathy and exhilaration” to Ukraine among the global public. It is widely known that Zelensky takes great pains in “display diplomacy”. Successive Japanese administrations focused on practical negotiations at numerous diplomatic summits, but they were poorly aware of sending messages to the global community to boost “sympathy and exhilaration”.
Regarding international “sympathy and exhilaration” to Ukraine, the Global South is still too conscious of the gap between their position and the of the West, and they care their relations with Russia too much. I would like to talk about major powers among them. India should have already known how unreliable Russian defense technology is in its indigenous next generation stealth fighter, which was to be jointly developed with Russia. That is why India cancelled the project. Also, it is contradictory that post-apartheid South Africa tries to maintain friendly relationship with racist Putin administration. Even after the invasion of Ukraine, some Western far right still resonate with Russia behind the curtain. In addition, the Putin administration is in denial of the Holodomor in Ukraine by the old Soviet Union, and this is the same line of racist thought as holocaust denial among Nazi sympathizers. As to Brazil, some worry that this country would take distance from the United States as leftist Lula administration was elected again, but actually, previous rightist Bolsonaro administration was pro-Trump rather than pro-American（"Russian Invasion of Ukraine Reveals Incoherence of Jair Bolsonaro’s Foreign Policy; Providence"; March 2, 2022）. In other words, pro-Russian Brazil can treat Putin’s propaganda favorably, whether governed by the right or the left. Of course, we cannot make sweeping generalization of the Global South which includes more than some tens of countries, and after all, if the Japanese delegation could boost “sympathy and exhilaration” to the global public, we would be more advantageous in the ongoing war.
Prime Minister Kishida says that he places emphasis on “trust and sympathy” both in domestic and foreign policy. But according to a communication expert, Professor Shoji Azuma of Utah University, he is good at report talk to explain his policies rationally, but not good at rapport talk to appeal for emotional sympathy to listeners ("Why don't PM Kishida's words appeal to the people?"; Jiji Press; October 7, 2022). That is typically the case, when Kishida faced vehement backlash from the public regarding women’s reskilling during maternity leave. In Ukraine, Russian troops impose tragedies on noncombatants from various kind of violence to abduction of school children. Under such circumstances, it is First Lady Olena Zelenska who sends rapport talk messages to the world to appeal for restoration of peaceful life and family bonds as early as possible.
If that is the case, since Japan puts more emphasis on the role in reconstruction than in military support, rather than Kishida himself, his wife Hiroko might be more in fit to deliver a speech to boost “sympathy and exhilaration” along with First Lady Olena, at the bilateral summit. Hiroko graduated from Tokyo Women’s Christian University and she was an executive assistant at Mazda. Judging from her experience, she has sufficient level of fundamental educational background and communication skills. Also, she is fluent in English and has some charming atmosphere. Of course, Hiroko herself may not have deep knowledge and experience in politics and diplomacy, but if she were to stand side by side with Olena for the speech to send a message to appeal for humanity to the global public, she would do the job very well. In that case, Prime Minister Kishida should rather focus on practical discussion at the summit, and watch the Japanese-Ukrainian First Ladies speech from behind, along with President Zelensky.
If the Kishida administration were forced to step down, who would assume the role of sending a message for “sympathy and exhilaration”, which is uniquely suitable for Japan? Talking about ex-Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga who leads the Kishida replacement campaign, he behaved so unconfidently at the photo-taking session of the G7 Carbis Bay, as if “I do not speak English well, and I feel quite awkward to be in a photo with Americans and Europeans”. Such attitude appears like that of Japanese prime ministers in the 1960s and 70s, and that is almost desperate for the job to send an appealing message around the world. At that time, he appeared completely different person from the Chief Cabinet Secretary of the Abe administration who replied calmly to media questions at the press conference. It is reported that Suga will back up Digital Affairs Minister Taro Kono ("Soichiro Tawara: Ex-PM Suga steps toward Kishda replacement --- Considering of backing up Ditgital Affirs Minister Kono"; AERA; February 2, 2023). Kono graduated from Georgetown University, and he has experienced foreign minister and defense minister positions. Of course, he is fluent in English and speaks in a crisp tone in the speech, and furthermore, he is charming enough. But he shows intolerant attitude occasionally to those who have different views on Twitter behind his outspoken manner, which makes his credential questionable whether he really sympathizes with war victims and people socially weak in Ukraine. After all, whoever is chosen to send Japan’s message globally, every candidate has his or her advantages and disadvantages.
There may be some hurdles for a bilateral meeting such as secrecy, safety, schedule, etc, but it not favorable that only Japan has not had the summit yet. It is possible to hold the meeting in the third country, other than Ukraine and Japan. As to the meeting schedule, it is preferable to be held before G7 Hiroshima, if possible. “Display diplomacy” is a part of hybrid warfare, and if we made every effort to form a global public opinion for our victory, it would be helpful to crack down Russian ambition of destroying the world order. That would be also helpful to check China that exhibits its ambition of taking global hegemony. The discussion on bilateral summit in Japan is liable to focus exclusively on practical working level, and poorly aware of “display” aspects. Both countries need to consider thoroughly how the Japanese-Ukrainian summit should be held.
NB: Biden visited Kyiv on February 20, 2023, after the original article was published on February 8.
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