Republican Senator Marco Rubio was unanimously approved for the Secretary of State on President Donald Trump’s inauguration day for his second term. He is one of the less controversial nominees among the Trump administration, and therefore, he is the first cabinet member to be appointed in the Second Trump administration (1). There is no doubt that Rubio is far better than some of Trump’s picks. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth was harshly questioned his credential for his alcoholism and sexual violence. With the tie-breaking vote by Vice President JD Vance, he was barely approved at the Senate (2). Director of National Intelligence nominee Tulsi Gabbard is also severely questioned for her affinity with Russia and ex-President Bashar Assad of Syria. British national security circles are critically concerned with this as her appointment would devastate the intelligence cooperation of the Five Eyes (3). Rubio is not regarded so problematic as those picks, but we have to remember his flip flop in foreign policy ever since he surrendered Trump in the Republican primary of the presidential election in 2016. Also, his flattering apology for his campaign ridicule to Trump appeared a miserable kowtow to the alpha male gorilla, as Trump attacked him with abusive words more cruelly.
Rubio has been engaged in foreign affairs in the House and the Senate for a long time, before running for the presidential election when the Obama term was ending. In the Republican primary, he upheld the New American Century ideal, which was more in resonance with former Republican candidate John McCain’s vision of American leadership in the world, rather than Trump’s America First. He was well aware of the impact of turmoil overseas on US national security in an increasingly interconnected world. Therefore, he criticized President-then Barack Obama’s “nation-building at home” policy for massive cuts in defense spending, skepticism for moral diplomacy, and appeasement to the enemies worldwide including Russia, China, Iran, Islamic extremists, etc. Quite importantly, he endorsed enduring American commitment to Asia, Europe, and the Middle East for global security and prosperity (4). After the surrender, Rubio conformed his foreign policy views with Trump’s America First, although he had schooled the notion of nuclear triad in the primary debate to the alpha male gorilla who has far less knowledge and experience in foreign policy than him (5).
Such inconsistency was criticized by Rubio’s ex-foreign policy advisor Max Boot. In an interview with PBS News in 2021, Boot commented that he was disappointed with Rubio because he changed the attitude to Trump after suspended his campaign. When Rubio stayed in the race, he questioned Trump’s credentials for the commander in chief because the alpha male gorilla knew fatally little about nuclear arms control. But after dropping out, Rubio began to speak about Trump’s causes and even to emulate his words and phrases (6). Clearly, the cabinet position is a reward for such loyalty to the alpha male. Quite noticeably, Robert Kagan, who was a foreign policy advisor for Republican presidential candidates John McCain and Mitt Romney as Boot was, joined the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton’s team. Kagan may have recognized something to indicate the degradation of the Republican Party even though Trump was regarded as the joke candidate in the earlier stage. Also, he may have recognized some character deficiencies with Rubio as shown in his servile “Don’t go against the tide” attitude to Trump.
At the Senate confirmation hearing before the inauguration, Rubio outlined his foreign policy views, which were starkly at odds with those of the New American Century that he upheld in his 2016 campaign. He argued for a foreign policy of “realistic” approaches on Ukraine, humanitarian aid, and other global issues. Implicitly, that word implies a foreign policy of restraint such as the offshore balancing strategy of Obama. Therefore, he has reversed his initial ideas in his presidential bid, and defends Trump’s America First unabashedly. From that point of view, he regards competition in technology and the global markets, and in politico-military influence with China far more critical to national security than rivalry in global and Eurasian geostrategy, and in ideological superiority with Russia. His China hawk vision is intertwined with protectionist trade policy to “rebuild domestic industrial capacity”, which is a deviation from his free trade view in the 2016 presidential bid (7). As he stated in the hearing, the confirmed Secretary of State declared to freeze humanitarian foreign aid to meet America First demand, i.e., not to fund projects which Trump thought useless to help US interests in the economy and national security directly, such as democracy promotion, empowerment, etc (8). But in face of criticism, Rubio waived the freeze of “humanitarian” projects for lifesaving such as medical service, public health, food supply, etc, except those for abortion and LGBTQ issues. The decision leaves American foreign aid workers in a complete mess as the definition of “lifesaving” is unclear, and they cannot decide whether to continue or stop their activities (9). That is the consequence of Rubio’s Trump First management of the State Department.
With such servile loyalty to Trump, Rubio visited Latin America including Panama, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Costa Rica for his first foreign trip as the Secretary of State, in order to dismantle growing influence of China (10). Rubio’s Hispanic background was taken into account upon his nomination, which indicates the Trump administration places heavy emphasis on America’s southern backyard, in order to implement the Monroe Doctrine of this century as shown in Trump’s vexing remarks on Canada, Greenland, and Panama Canal. Alexander Gray, senior fellow of the American Foreign Policy Council and former chief of staff at the National Security Council in Trump’s first term presidency, justifies this new Monroe Doctrine in his recent article in Foreign Policy. Quite disappointingly, he is preoccupied with edging out influence of America’s strategic opponents from Latin America, but hardly mentions visionary ideas to deepen mutual partnership in regional security, economic development, governance and empowerment, as cited proudly in the Alliance for Progress by President John F Kennedy in the 1960s. Trump-styled Monroe Doctrine that Gray advocates is narrow-sightedly driven by the fear of China, and he speaks geopolitical rivalry from victimhood mindsets, i.e., America’s strategic interests are infringed. He does not show the slightest idea about America’s role as the guardian of the liberal world order (11).
The prospect of Trump diplomacy in Latin America is dismal, according to Rodrigo Moura an international infrastructure projects lawyer and a PhD. candidate at the University of Essex. Whether right or left, Latin American and Caribbean nations are exploring more diversified foreign relations, rather than predominant dependence on the United States in the past. More critically, Trump scapegoats Latin American counties to appeal to his MAGA rock solid base, as shown in his coercive tariff on Colombia over the undocumented immigrant deportation dispute. That would nurture anti-American sentiments furthermore, which would ultimately help China. As long as Rubio represents Trump’s MAGA agenda in domestic politics such as trade and immigrants, it is unlikely that he would improve American reputation in the region (12). And globally, Trump`s Monroe Doctrine places disproportionate emphasis on China over Russia, as MAGA voters regard geopolitics in Europe as remote and irrelevant to them, while they are imperiled with Chinese threat to their jobs. Trump wants to split China and Russia as Henry Kissinger did in history. However, the Sino-Soviet rift had already existed before Kissinger’s secret diplomacy. Today, China and Russia are not in rift but aligned as shown in BRICS meeting and the war in Ukraine. Lopsided China hawk views among MAGA republicans are wrong (13). After all, Rubio has Trumpified himself as typically seen in his defense of Trump’s unhumanitarian “Riviera” comment about Gaza (14), while calling Latin American autocracies including Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Cuba enemies of humanity (15).
With more uncompromisingly MAGA Trump and increasingly subservient cabinet members are in, America today has changed from a bright power (bearer of rules and norms for the world order) to a dark power (unabashed pursuer of beggar thy neighbor policy at the expense of others). Even unanimously approved secretary of state is strongly influenced by rightwing populism at home. American allies are rearranging relations with America of Trump 2.0. Europe is exploring strategic autonomy acceleratingly, which requires Britain’s reengagement with the Continent as Prime Minister Keir Starmer insisted in the general election last July. However, Trump appears to split Britain from the rest of Europe in the tariff war (16). He even considers the United Kingdom as the first country to visit in this term (17). Despite that, as Trump considers 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum import unanimously, it is not clear how much would it hit non-EU Britain (18). Above all, Trump’s trade war is at odds with his demand for a self-reliant Europe in defense against Russia, because that will break the unity and weaken resilience of them.
As to Japan, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba ended his diplomatic meeting with Trump successfully for the time being. However, Tobia Harris, a Japanese politics analyst, mentioned that the second term Trump does not need advices from a foreign leader, and therefore, the Abe legacy does not necessarily work for him (19). Therefore, Japan should still keep alert to Trump’s sporadic words and deeds. Remember, ex-Deputy National Security Advisor Ben Rhodes comments in recent article in the New York Times that Trump suddenly expresses territorial greed for Canada, Greenland, and Panama Canal, which was not stated in his election pledge (20). Japan is a fragile blossom without the umbrella of multilateral security structure, but it has long experience of diplomatic relations with “bad guys”, thanks to “pragmatic peaceful realism” by Tanzan Ishibashi as mentioned in the interview with Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya by Professor Yuichi Hosoya of Keio University (21). The notable case is the JICA’s training for Ukrainian demining in Cambodia under the Hun Sen administration (22). Such experience would be helpful to treat Trump.
Finally, I would like to mention that Secretary Rubio still understands the importance of bipartisan foreign policy, despite his submissive attitude to Trump the alpha male gorilla. He proposed a bill with Democratic Senator Tim Kaine to stop unilateral withdrawal from NATO by the president in 2023 (23). Hopefully, he would give priority to his conscience over personal loyalty to his boss when national and global security is critically tested.
Footnotes:
(1) "Senate confirms Marco Rubio as secretary of state, giving Trump the first member of his Cabinet"; AP News; January 21, 2025
(2) "Vance Breaks Tie To Confirm Pete Hegseth For Pentagon"; Daily Wire; January 25, 2025
(3) Twitter; @carolecadwalla; November 14, 2024
(4) "Marco Rubio's Foreign Policy Vision"; Council on Foreign Relations; May 13, 2015
(5) "Marco Rubio schools Donald Trump on the nuclear triad"; Politico; December 15, 2015
(6) "Max Boot: “Extremists” in Control of the Republican Party"; PBS News; October 22, 2021
(7) "Rubio details what Trump’s ‘America First’ foreign policy will entail"; Washington Post; January 15, 2025
(8) "State Department freezes new funding for nearly all US aid programs worldwide"; AP News; January 25, 2025
(9) "Rubio backtracks on near-total foreign aid freeze, issues humanitarian waiver"; Washington Post; January 28, 2025
(10) "Rubio Sends Strong Message With Destination Of His First Foreign Trip"; Daily Wire; January 23, 2025
(11) "Trump Will End U.S. Passivity in the Western Hemisphere"; Foreign Policy; January 13, 2025
(12) "Can Marco Rubio Help Rebuild US Influence in Latin America – and Erode China’s?"; Dilomat; January 29, 2025
(13) "Transition 2025: Events Will Test Donald Trump’s Foreign Policy Promises"; Council on Foreign Relations; December 13, 2024
(14) "Trump aides defend Gaza takeover proposal but walk back some elements"; Reuters News; February 6, 2025
(15) Twitter; @StateDept; February 6, 2025
(16) "Trump's Tariff Threats Drive New Wedge Between UK and Europe"; Financial Post; February 4, 2025
(17) "Trump says Starmer is doing ‘a very good job’ ahead of phone call between two leaders"; Leading Britain's Conversation; 26 January, 2025
(18) "Donald Trump’s tariffs: what’s happening and what could it mean for the UK?"; Full Fact; 4 February, 2025
(19) "LDP election, 'Who is America alarmed with?'"; Sankei Shimbun; September 17, 2024
(20) "This Isn't the Donald Trump America Elected"; New York Times; February 9, 2025
(21) "Interview with Foreign Minister Iwaya: Japanese foreign policy in 2025"; Gaiko; January/February 2025
(22) "Japan partners with Cambodia to share demining knowledge with Ukraine, other countries"; AP News; July 7, 2024
(23) "Congress approves bill barring presidents from unilaterally exiting NATO"; Washington Post; December 18, 2023
