Tuesday, September 29, 2015

The Postscript of Iran and the United States over the Nuclear Deal

In a previous post, I mentioned Capitol Hill opponents to the Iran nuclear deal were working hard to repeal it. However, they failed to reach two-third majority in the third vote to overturn the deal. As a result, the President’s bill has passed the Senate (“Last bid to kill Iran nuclear deal blocked in Senate”; Reuters; September 17, 2015). Despite that, four Democrat senators of Ben Cardin, Joe Manchin, Bob Menendez and Chuck Schumer voted against the deal for all the three times, along with Republicans (“Senate Dems stonewall Iran resolution, handing victory to Obama”; Hill; September 17, 2015).

However, opponents have not given up hope to impose restrictions on the nuclear deal to prevent cheating by Iran. They call for reauthrozing the Iran Sanctions Act in 1996 to pressure foreign companies not to invest in Iran's oil and gas industries, when Iran does not comply with the deal. In parallel with this, they endorse military aid to Gulf Arabs and Israel to bolster their deterrence against Iran. Furthermore, inspection takes a long time, and conflicts between Iran and the global community may happen. Opponents will demand strict compliance to Iran (“Iran nuclear deal is done, but not the debate in Congress”; AP; September 19, 2015). Remember, disagreements between UN inspectors and Saddam Hussein triggered the Iraq War.

Cooperation among P5+1 is founded on the house of cards. Disagreements over Syria split the stakeholders of the nuclear deal. While Russia and Iran sponsor the Assad administration to defeat ISIS, the United States backs the Free Syrian Army to replace Assad with a democratic regime. Saudi Arabia fears growing Iranian influence in Syria through their support to Assad (“US-Russia tensions on show as Putin and Obama clash over Syria”; Guardian; 28 September, 2015). As tensions between both regional powers get intensified, mutual trust between Iran and the rest of the world will grow increasingly fragile.