The fall of communism brought the market economy and free election to Eastern and Central Europe. However, in an interview with the German Marshall Fund on May 31, Kateryna Pishchikova, Junior Fellow at the Transatlantic Academy, comments that multi party systems and regular elections have not democratized former Warsaw Pact nations, because civil liberty and the rule of law are not guaranteed. She says that post communism regimes in those regions are something between Western democracy and Russo-Chinese autocracy, and calls them hybrid regimes.
The growth of hybrid regimes shows that the collapse of communist states has not led New Europe to become stable democracies. Instead, the rise of a new type of regimes erodes the legitimacy of promoting Western styled democracy. NATO and the EU has not succeeded in transforming them to real democracies at this stage.
See the video below.
Pishchikova’s viewpoints have global implications for regional integration, as free trade and democracy are key agendas beyond Europe. The European Union adopted the Copenhagen Criteria in 1993 to set the standard for new members to join the group, regarding human rights and the rule of law. Such criteria should be a guideline to help new comers improve their performance, rather than a bar to reject applicants bidding the membership.
Think of real meaning of regional integration from European experience.
Opinions and analyses on US and global security presented by H. Ross Kawamura: a foreign policy commentator; an advocate for liberal interventionism and robust defense policy; a watchful guardian of a world order led by the USA, Europe, and Japan.
Sunday, June 30, 2013
Saturday, June 22, 2013
Understanding Turkey from Turkish Viewpoints
Currently, Turkey is in the midst of a
bitter backlash against Islamist foreign and domestic policies of the Erdoğan
administration. It is a front line of the NATO operation against Assad’s Syria.
More importantly, Turkey is a strategic linchpin in the trans Atlantic region,
the Middle East, and Eurasia. Therefore, it is vital for American, European,
and Japanese policymakers to understand Turkey’s position in the world and at
home.
I would like to mention some articles in “The
New Turkey” to explore Turkish foreign policy and current turmoil. The New
Turkey is based in Ankara, and promotes Turkish perspectives on world affairs
in English throughout the world. We are liable to see Turkey from foreign,
particularly American and European standpoints. However, it is necessary to
understand Turkey’s unique position between Islam and the West from Turkish
viewpoints. The New Turkey presents Turkish perspectives on Turkey’s foreign
policy, Middle East issues in general, and Central Asian and global security.
Also, foreign opinion leaders such as Professor Jefrrey Sachs of Columbia University contribute articles to this
journal (“Why Turkey is thriving?”; New Turkey; May 30, 2013).
To begin with, let me talk about Turkey’s position in the
world of this century. Professor Talip Küçükcan of Marmara University in
Istanbul and Müjge
Küçükkeleş, Research Assistant at a Turkish think tank called the Foundation for the Political, Economic, and Social Research (SETA), present
basic outline of Turkey’s foreign policy since the Kemal Revolution and
Islamist diplomacy under the Erdoğan administration (“Understanding Turkish Foreign Policy”; New Turkey; May 17, 2013). Written before the Istanbul clash,
this article says Turkey will implement more assertive foreign policy. Is this
one of the reasons for Prime Minister Tayyip Erdoğan’s Islamist foreign policy?
For this purpose, we need to understand the
outline of Turkish diplomatic history after Kemal Atatürk. During the interwar
and World War II period after the revolution in 1923, Turkey retained neutral
position. After the war, Turkey associated itself with the West under the
Truman Doctrine. This is partly due to Kemalist Westernization in its nation
building, in addition to Cold War geopolitics. At the first Asian-African
Conference in Bandung in 1955, Turkey defended the West. Moreover, Turkey even
supported the Anglo-French invasion in the Suez War, and other Western
intervention in the Middle East. As a result, Turkey’s Middle East neighbors
regarded this country as a Trojan horse of the West. However, Turkey’s Western
alignment foreign policy was weakened in 1960 because the United States criticized
Turkey’s intervention in ethnic conflicts in Cyprus and détente eased relations
with the Soviet Union. The pendulum moved westward again in 1980, in view of
the threat of Islamism by the Iranian revolution, and instability by the Soviet
invasion in Afghanistan and the Iran Iraq War.
When the Cold War ended, then-President Turgut Özal initiated a new look of Turkish foreign policy to
explore more assertive and multi dimensional diplomacies than those of the
past. The Gulf War augmented the strategic importance of Turkey in the Middle
East. Also, the collapse of the Soviet Union has raised awareness of historical
ties among Turkey, Caucasus, and Central Asian nations. Özal launched a vision
of “from the Adriatic to the Great Wall of China”, but post modern and civilian
Europe is critically alert to the rise of authoritarian Turkey. Meanwhile, Islamists
and Kurdish opposed mainstream Kemalists’ orientation to the West. Due to post
Cold War self-assertism and AKP (Justice and Development Party) victory in
2002, Turkey reconsiders its identity in Europe, and defines itself as a linchpin
of the Afro-Eurasian sphere. On the other hand, AKP has transformed into a liberal
and market oriented party to live with the European Union. Küçükcan and Küçükkeleş argue that
Europeans are too obsessed with Islamist aspects of AKP. At least, that is a Turkish viewpoint.
The Afro-Eurasian diplomacy
concept was created by Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu when he was the chief
foreign policy advisor to Prime Minister Erdoğan. A
typical attitude of this concept is shown that Turkey signed to become a
partner to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) while staying as a member
of NATO. Galip Dalay, PhD candidate at the
Middle East Technical University, discusses this vital and compelling issue (“Turkey between Shanghai and Brussels”; New Turkey; May 14, 2013). It is generally
believed that Turkey’s bid for SCO partnership is a compensation for the
continual reluctance of the EU to accept Turkey’s long cherished desire for the
membership. Turkey’s AKP administration stresses that SCO entry does not
contradict with human rights and the rule of law standards of the Copenhagen Criteria for EU membership. On the other hand, Dalay admits that Turkey’s
association with the EU helps democratization.
The focal point is, whether EU membership
is still more attractive than other regional cooperation in Turkish foreign
policy. Since the bid for EU membership has been rejected for many years, Turkey explores
alternative systems to strengthen its global presence. However, the United
States regards Turkey’s partnership with the SCO is incompatible with its NATO
membership. Delay talks about an interesting comparison between Turkey and Britain regarding this issue.
Even if Britain withdraws from the EU, its membership in NATO shall never be
questioned. Erdoğan’s SCO bid can worsen Turkey’s relations with the EU, and
ultimately, risks its position in NATO. Instead, Dalay suggests that Turkey
explore realistic processes which do not rule out full EU membership in the
future.
Turkey’s quest for increasing Afro-Eurasian
presence and bolstering multidimensional foreign policy are accompanied by AKP’s
Islamism in domestic politics. These factors lead to assertive diplomacy and Istanbul’s
Olympic bid. However, the Erdoğan’s AKP administration faces domestic turmoil
at present. What caused uprisings, and how will those have effects on foreign
policy? Despite vehement criticism to the government on the street, Turkish
analysts say AKP wins more solid popular support than widely thought among
Western media and commentators. Let me mention some commentaries from Turkish
viewpoints.
Despite civic protests, AKP won almost 50%
of the vote in the last general election in 2011. Taha Özhan, Director
General of SETA, comments that AKP tackles critical problems which oppositions
are reluctant to do, such as changing the current constitution ratified undermilitary rule in 1982 and initiating peace talks with the Kurdistan
Workers’ Party (PKK). He points out that “fear, feeling confined and
repressed” does not explain civic protests, and more attention needs to be paid
to socio-political transformation in Turkey (“The meaning of the protests”; NewTurkey; June 7, 2013). Quite interestingly, Hamza
Taşdelen argues that AKP captures the heart of opposition electoral bases. While the
Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) rejects constitutional change, their
grassroots supporters of nationalist conservatives in Central Anatolia approve
of it. Also, AKP penetrates into supporters of the Republican People’s Party
(CHP) by adopting social democratic approaches to tackle socioeconomic inequality
(“Being the opposition while in power”;New Turkey; May 28, 2013). Though wealthy Turkish do not vote for AKP, they say
“Let Erdoğan win the elections because he is good for the economy, but let him
not make any other political decisions.” Taha Özhan comments that
secular oppositions cannot attract voters in such a political landscape (“What really happened in Turkey?”; New Turkey; June 7, 2013).
Of course, we must keep it in mind that the
above scholars are excessively generous to AKP. Their analysis may have some
points that we need to listen, but remember that the Erdoğan administration is critically challenged by popular
discontent. There is no denying of it. Prime Minister Erdoğan has not
stabilized Turkey secure enough for the Olympics. On the other hand, industrialized
democracies should not be obsessed with the fear of Islam itself. Europe is extremely alert to Turkey’s Islamic socio-political culture, and that has pushed
this country to find the position in alternative groups such as the Russo-Chinese
led SCO rather than in Western democracies. Turkish experts make it clear that the
public is disillusioned with the West, secular political parties, and also,
military establishment who boast themselves the guardian of the current
constitution. The United States fails to bridge the gap between Europe and
Turkey.
On the other hand, Japan is too naïve to “pro
Japanese” Turkey. But has Japan done anything for this country? Most of the
Japanese are so uninterested in Turkey, and so ignorant of this country. Few of Japanese
opinion leaders are in a position to criticize Governor Naoki Inose for his improper
remark in the Olympic bid to stress Tokyo’s advantage over Istanbul. The Turkish
public may have a favorable impression to Japan, but when their country faces a
real crisis, there is no doubt that Turkish people ask help to America and
Europe, rather than Japan, as seen in the Syrian crisis. Japanese policymakers
should bear it in mind, and reconsider foreign policy approaches to this
country.
There is nothing wrong to endorse secular democracy
itself, in view of the quest for freedom in neighboring Arab nations. The
global community needs to understand the nature of ongoing political transition
in Turkey. Currently, Brazil faces a similar sort of unprecedented burst of
civic energy over the Rio de Janeiro World Cup Soccer. Are there something common
in emerging powers? Unlike Turkish experts, Americans, Europeans, and Japanese are
in no position of hailing AKP, but it is necessary to examine Turkish viewpoints
carefully. We cannot dismiss that oppositions are not
sufficiently attractive to win a nationwide support among the public. The New Turkey will give some clues to foresee Turkish political
transition.
Friday, May 31, 2013
Facebook Movements for Secular Democracy of Iran
We remember the Facebook revolution that
began from Tunisia, and then, spread to Egypt and Libya in December 2010.
Currently, some of the global public is disappointed with the Arab Spring, in
view of the rise of Islamists. From this point, Facebook movements for Iranian
freedom is worthy of attention as it pursues secular democracy. Various
associations create pages and groups on Facebook to promote freedom movements of
Iran.
Let me explain pages and groups. On
Facebook, there are two types of communications. "Page" is a one way communication
in which a handful of administrators send messages to those who expressed support
for them by clicking “like”. On the other hand, “group” is a mutual
communication between administrators and members. Once the membership is
approved, anyone can write a wall post of the group. Through both ways, Iran’s democracy
rallies are launched one after another. There is no way of knowing whether
their rallies will succeed like those in Tunisia, but it is apparent that the
theocratic government in Tehran cannot control Internet movements.
Unlike those in Tunisia and Egypt, Iranian Facebook
movements are strongly secular, because they fight against theocracy instead of
military rule. While the Arab Spring was driven by a loose network of students,
Iranian movements are more cohesive. This is a vital point, because student
activities were hijacked by Islamists, particularly in Egypt. In case of
Iranian movements, Former Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi plays a pivotal role. He
may not return to the throne, but as often witnessed in Europe, monarchy is a
built in stabilizer against religious fanaticism and military dictatorship.
Currently, Pahlavi lives in Bethesda,
Maryland, and urges Western civil societies to support Iranian freedom through
the media on both sides of the Atlantic. His official page on Facebook draws
nearly 158 thousand “like” clicks from all over the world, the most of them are
from Tehran despite severe Internet censorship. In addition to his own official page, his
supporters created “Prince Reza Pahlavi Fan Page”. Through pages and groups on
Facebook, Iranian democracy proponents exchange information and opinions,
promote values, and create a sense of unity around the globe. Quite a few
individuals use photos of the Pahlavi family members for their profile picture.
Shir o Khorshid or the Lion and the Sun, is
another symbol among Iranian freedom fighters. It has been a traditional mark
of Iran since the Sassanid era, and various dynasties used this emblem until
the fall of the Pahlavi regime. After the Iranian revolution, Shiite theocrats
adopted more Islamic symbol of four crescents and a line to represent Tawhid or
monotheism. As a result, Iranian protesters use their traditional national
emblem to show patriotism and resistance to the theocracy. Some pages and groups
like “Official Page of Reza Pahlavi” and “Iranian and their Friends” use Shir o
Khorshid cover photos. Compare Iranian national flags before and after the
revolution.
Before
After
Before
After
Politically, those pages and groups show
strong solidarities with the United States and Israel. Some of them are closely
tied to conservative American civil networks for their detestation of Islamism and
Sharia rule. While most of the participants seem to be Americans and Iranians
in exile in the West, a substantial number of Iranians living in Iran join freedom
networks despite strict censorship under a repressive regime at home. As witnessed
in the Green Movement in 2009, Iranian freedom activists and general public are
craving for American help. But why Israel? Historically, Iran was in good
relations with Jewish people. It is Cyrus the Great who relieved ancient
Hebrews from Babylonian oppression. Today, Iran has the largest Jewishpopulation in the Middle East. Moreover, Former Israeli President Moshe Katsavwas born in Iran, and Iranians are proud of it. Current theocracy ruins such
ancient and deep friendship with Israel.
The Internet is not the only way for
Iranian freedom activists. Iranian Americans a held an event called the PersianParade on April 14 this year in New York. Originally, the parade started to
celebrate Nowruz in 2004. Though primary objective of this event is to enhance
unity among Iranians living in the United States and promote understandings in
traditional Persian culture, Iranian freedom activists advertise the event to
raise awareness to their advocacy for regime change at home. The Persian Parade
is entirely run by grassroots, without depending on opposition celebrities
like Reza Pahlavi, Mariam Rajavi, and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi. In
the parade, American mounted policemen march, raising the Shir o Khorshid and the
Stars and Stripes side by side. This is a visual appeal of close ties between
Iranian freedom movements and American civil societies. See the photo below.
Shir o Khorshid and the Stars and Stripes march side by side.
Secular democracy in Iran will have significant implication from Africa to China. Currently, Islamists rise in Egypt and Turkey, and Al Qaeda found their safe havens in the Sahel area, the Caucasus, and throughout the Middle East. However, Al Qaeda’s sphere of influence has not expanded in both East and West Turkestan (“The al QaedaFranchise Threat”; Wall Street Journal; April 30, 2013). Sponsoring secular democracy movements for Iran will help promote democracy free of religious biases from North Africa to Xinjiang, beyond the Arab regions. Particularly, Persian cultural traditions are strong in Iranian and Turkic peoples in Central Asia. Therefore, once positive dominos of democracy without religious fanaticism spread, things across Eurasia will be strategically advantageous for free nations, including East Asia. Once secular democracy takes root in Turkestan, the West need not compromise with China in the War on Terror, which enables free nations to stand steadfast against China’s maritime expansionism and human rights abuse. Therefore , I hope this post will be of some help to draw worldwide attention to Iranian freedom movements.
Wednesday, May 15, 2013
Japan as the Bulwark against Red China to Defend US and Asia Pacific Nations
China’s expansionist ambition and North
Korea’s nuclear brinkmanship diplomacy intensify tension in East Asia. Particularly,
tightrope foreign policy is required to manage China. While exploring some security
cooperation and economic ties, the United States and Asia Pacific nations must
be well aware of the danger of this country. A strong Japan will serve as a
bulwark against Red China, which will serve the interests of nations in this
region, whether engaging or confronting the Beijing regime.
Does the Obama administration understand those arguments? Let me see a commentary regarding Secretary of State John Kerry’ visit to East Asia last April by Christopher Griffin, Executive Director, and Robert Zarate, Policy Director, both at the Foreign Policy Initiative (“What John Kerry is Doing Rightand Wrong in East Asia”; Diplomat Magazine; April 18, 2013). Secretary Kerry articulated to defend Japan and the Asian sea lane, in case of aggressive intrusion by China. But we have to remember that eight Republican senators wrote to Kerry on April 12 to call an attention to the dangerous adventurism of China and strategic importance of Japan. Signatories of this letter were Marco Rubio, John Cornyn, James M. Inhofe, James E. Risch, Kelly Ayotte, Robert Corker, John Barrasso, Saxby Chambliss, and John McCain.
The problem is, the Obama administration’s
pivot to Asia often appears just rhetorical, and throwing away America’s
special role in the Middle East. That can lead to a super power suicide. Current
US policy in East Asia must be understood in a global context, beyond Sino-Japanese
geopolitical rivalries. Those who endorse America’s role in the Middle East are
steadfast against Chinese expansionism. In an era of rising isolationism in the
United States, as witnessed in the sequestration, we must keep it in mind.
Why
America and Asia Pacific nations need a strong Japan? Vance Serchuk, Former
staff of Ex-Senator Joseph Lieberman tells why in his recent article (“An ascendant Japan would boost U.S. interests”; WashingtonPost; April 19, 2013). Lieberman and former Senator Jon Kyl contributed an
article with to make the case against isolationism (“Thedanger of repeating the cycle of American isolationism”; Washington Post; April25, 2013), and launched the “American Internationalism Project” in the American
Enterprise Institute. Therefore, Serchuck’s policy analysis presents insights
to see the Obama administration’s Asia policy critically, and assess the
strategic importance of Japan to the United States and Asia Pacific allies.
Let me see Serchuck’s view on East Asia and Sino-Japanese rivalries.
Regarding regional security, the United States may have to ask China’s
cooperation on North Korea to curb its nuclear threats. However, China does not
necessarily share vital interests of nonproliferation with the global community,
and more concerned with the collapse of the regime in North Korea. Also, China’s
cyber threat and maritime expansionism are critical concerns. Japan has a great
potential to become a reliable security partner to those who face such threats.
Despite a mere 1% of GDP in defense spending, Japan’s military capability is the
most advanced in Asia. In addition, he points out that the Abe administration
is willing to assume more security responsibility as tensions grow in Asia.
Does the Obama administration understand those arguments? Let me see a commentary regarding Secretary of State John Kerry’ visit to East Asia last April by Christopher Griffin, Executive Director, and Robert Zarate, Policy Director, both at the Foreign Policy Initiative (“What John Kerry is Doing Rightand Wrong in East Asia”; Diplomat Magazine; April 18, 2013). Secretary Kerry articulated to defend Japan and the Asian sea lane, in case of aggressive intrusion by China. But we have to remember that eight Republican senators wrote to Kerry on April 12 to call an attention to the dangerous adventurism of China and strategic importance of Japan. Signatories of this letter were Marco Rubio, John Cornyn, James M. Inhofe, James E. Risch, Kelly Ayotte, Robert Corker, John Barrasso, Saxby Chambliss, and John McCain.
Actually, the eight senators who sent the
reminder to Secretary Kerry are seriously critical of Obama’s Middle East policy
in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and Iran. From this fact, you will understand that
Obama’s disengagement in the Middle East does not necessarily mean strong
commitment to Asia. An appeasing America in the Middle East is also an
appeasing America in Asia. Policymakers in Japan and the rest of the Asia
Pacific should keep it in mind, rather than welcoming the pivot to Asia naïvely.
Meanwhile,
Kerry even thinks of soliciting Chinese cooperation to manage North Korea in
exchange for removal of US missile defense system. Though China is an
indispensable partner on North Korea, it is a nuclear power challenging the
world order of Western democracies. Removing deterrence will not be in favor of
America’s interest in the Asia Pacific. At the meeting between the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff,
Martin Dempsey, and the Head of PLA General Staff department Fang Fenghui, the
Chinese side mentioned three obstacles in US-Chinese military cooperations: US
arms deals with Taiwan, reconnaissance against Chinese targets, and arms
embargo against China. Furthermore, in the recent PLA white paper, China
denounces implicitly that the United States augments regional tensions (“US,China military top brass take aim”; Asia Times; April 26, 2013).
But it is China that intensifies tensions
across the globe and the region, notably by aggressive maritime intimidation in
the East and the South China Seas, and cyber attacks. As Senator John McCain
argues, Asians still want to "live in a world shaped by American power, American
values, and American leadership” (“Why Asia Wants America”; Diplomat Magazine; May 22, 2012), but
China defies American supremacy. Though politicians are cautious to avoid
provocative words to China, Joseph Bosco, former staff at the Office of the
Secretary of Defense, clearly states China is a threat. He warns that China has
grown wealthy, strong, overconfident, and defiant under the benefits of the
international system and generous Western engagement. This is typically
witnessed in China’s aggression to the freedom of navigation in international
waters in the Asia Pacific region (“Red China Remains a Threat”; WeeklyStandard; November 26, 2011). Japan is the most ideally located to stop China
in terms of geography.
Humanitarian aspect is another issue to manage Chinese expansionism in Asia. Kılıç Kanat, Assistant Professor at Pennsylvania State University, comments that the United States and Western allies should not dismiss China’s repression against Uyghur people as typically seen in the clash in Kashgar this April. Kanat says that the pivot to Asia putting heavy emphasis on commercial interests without giving consideration to human rights and liberty “will create not only a humanitarian disaster in the region but will also pave the way for a crisis of legitimacy for the policies of Western democracies” (“The Kashgar incident andChina’s Uyghur question”; The New Turkey; May 9, 2013). This message is primarily addressed to Americans and Europeans, but Japanese and Asian policymakers should also keep it in mind. In the Security Diamond Strategy launched by the Abe administration, humanitarian values are the key (“Shinzo Abe’s Strategic Diamond”; DiplomatMagazine; January 15, 2013).
Humanitarian aspect is another issue to manage Chinese expansionism in Asia. Kılıç Kanat, Assistant Professor at Pennsylvania State University, comments that the United States and Western allies should not dismiss China’s repression against Uyghur people as typically seen in the clash in Kashgar this April. Kanat says that the pivot to Asia putting heavy emphasis on commercial interests without giving consideration to human rights and liberty “will create not only a humanitarian disaster in the region but will also pave the way for a crisis of legitimacy for the policies of Western democracies” (“The Kashgar incident andChina’s Uyghur question”; The New Turkey; May 9, 2013). This message is primarily addressed to Americans and Europeans, but Japanese and Asian policymakers should also keep it in mind. In the Security Diamond Strategy launched by the Abe administration, humanitarian values are the key (“Shinzo Abe’s Strategic Diamond”; DiplomatMagazine; January 15, 2013).
Above all, we should not welcome the pivot
to Asia so naïvely for simplistic fear of China. As shown in the case of the
letter by the eight senators, America's disengagement in the Middle East leads to appeasement
in Asia. In parallel with contacting incumbent Obama administration, Japanese
policymakers need to found strong ties with defense hawks and global interventionists
in the United States who are critically concerned with the superpower suicide. That
serves the key interest of the United States, Japan, and Asia Pacific
democracies.
Monday, April 15, 2013
A Map of Iran’s Nuclear Facilities
While the world pays close attention to
North Korean missiles, Iran test fired missiles to threaten Israel ("Iran test-fires three new missile types"; Times of Israel; April 13, 2013). Now, see
the map below to know where Iran’s nuclear facilities are.
Bushehr plant managed to survive the earthquake of magnitude 6.3 few days ago (Quake Hits Southwest Iran, Killing 37; Radio Free Europe; 9 April, 2013)
Sunday, April 07, 2013
Japan Needs US Ambassador of Military Veteran, not Caroline Kennedy
It seems that the Obama administration’s appointment of Caroline Kennedy is
taken favorably among the public on both sides of the Pacific. As shown in the
following video, of CBS News on April 2, the family name of Kennedy nurtures
charismatic romanticism which is associated with the tragic legend of an
idealist president John F. Kennedy. On this program, historian Robert Dallek commented that
the Ambassador Kennedy would represent the best of American culture.
However, in view of growing security challenges of China and North Korea, and complexity of Okinawa US base issues, some opinion leaders prefer much more professional ambassador to Tokyo. Remember that the Ambassador to Japan represents America’s strategic interests beyond Japan. No other places in the world are so ideally located than the Japanese archipelago to watch security challenges from Hawaii to the Indian Ocean. Former Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage is right to emphasize such strategic value repeatedly. Newly appointed ambassador must be well aware of this.
The next ambassador must speak softly, and carry a big stick
Jun Okumura, Senior Analyst at the Eurasia Group, mentions furthermore, “In this age of rapid communications, the real decisions are made at home anyway,” and “The ambassadors are largely symbols these days. What it does say is that there are no major problems in the Japan-US relationship; it’s still a safe appointment, like to Britain or France” (“Why CarolineKennedy is likely to get a warm welcome in Japan”; Christian Science Monitor;April 2, 2013). Certainly, American presidents appointed political fundraisers to the ambassadors to Britain in reward of contribution to their election victory, as typically seen in the case of Joseph Kennedy.
However, in view of growing security challenges of China and North Korea, and complexity of Okinawa US base issues, some opinion leaders prefer much more professional ambassador to Tokyo. Remember that the Ambassador to Japan represents America’s strategic interests beyond Japan. No other places in the world are so ideally located than the Japanese archipelago to watch security challenges from Hawaii to the Indian Ocean. Former Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage is right to emphasize such strategic value repeatedly. Newly appointed ambassador must be well aware of this.
Despite Kennedy’s popularity, some concerns
are raised as she has no experience in diplomacy and public administration. Republican
member of the House Foregin relations Committee Dana Rohrabackher says, “It thought it was an April Fool’s joke
when I first heard about it, Our economic and national security are based on
good will toward Japan. I have nothing against Caroline Kennedy becoming
ambassador to, say, Barbados. But Japan is too important for somebody with no
experience” (“Kennedy asJapan ambassador raises concerns amid N. Korea tensions”; FOX News;April 3, 2013). Even Clyde Prestowitz, President of the Economic Strategy
Institute, who supported Obama in presidential elections, comments this critically. Compared
with past ambassadors, Caroline Kennedy is no political heavy weight, and has
little knowledge and experience in diplomacy and foreign affairs. Also, he says
that she knows too little about Japanese culture and language (“Caroline Kennedy's appointment is not very Kennedyesque”; Foreign Policy--Clyde Prestowitz; April 2, 2013).
I agree to most of the above criticism, in view
of Japan’s mistake to appoint Uichiro Niwa, former chairman of a Japanese
general trading company Itochu Corporation, to the ambassador to China. But I
do not think familiarity with Japanese language and culture so important as
Prestowitz says, because current Japanese speak English more fluently and know American
culture much more than those in the Edwin Reischauer days. Rather, we have
focus on knowledge in security and skills in diplomacy and administration,
particularly crisis management. From this point of view, I would argue that the
next ambassador to Tokyo be selected from military veterans. Among military veterans, there are so many
good candidates who inspire awe and respect to America, from Hawaii to the
Indian Ocean.
The armed forces are landmines of good
candidates, such as Admiral Michael Mullen, General David Petraeus, General Raymond
Odierno, and so forth. If knowledge in Japanese affairs matters, then, Richard
Armitage will be on the top list. Even among those who are unknown to the
public, many generals and admirals are well qualified to outstare any security
challenges rising in the Pacific and the Indian Oceans from Tokyo. Unknown man
can become famous instantly, when he accomplishes great achievement. There is
no reason to give special preferences for a celebrity. Since current US defense
capabilities are shrinking due to budget cut and sequestration, such loss needs
to be compensated with knowledge, skills, and personality of politicians and diplomats. Let me show a good
example. People see current Russia much greater power than it actually is, and that owes to strenuous image of a KGB veteran Vladimir Putin. A US ambassador to
Japan must be a John Wayne to demonstrate American prestige and strength, in
order to overcome global and domestic difficulties. This is why I believe
military veterans are more preferable to Caroline Kennedy for the ambassador to
Japan.
The next ambassador must speak softly, and carry a big stick
Whoever comes to Tokyo, the Japanese side
is not in a position to call new ambassador persona non grata, unless he or
she is seriously problematic to assume the mission. However, I believe it necessary
to reconsider Kennedy’s job credentials on both sides of the Pacific. Some opinion
leaders say being a woman is an advantage to deepen bilateral friendship, but
gender equality is no priority issue between Japan and the United States today. Nor,
do I believe that a princess of hereditary power represents the best of
American culture. It is globally understood that a person who really represent
the best of American culture and image is a man of man as typically portrayed by
John Wayne. In other words, Tokyo needs a US ambassador who speaks softly while
carrying a big stick. Remember that South Korea sends Lee Byung Kee, foreign policy advisor to President
Park Guen Hye. Whose interest is it, if US ambassador is eclipsed by such
brilliant diplomats from all over the world? For vital interests of Japan and
the United States, the selection of the ambassador must be reconsidered.
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